Americans Desire Global Leadership
A significant new public opinion poll, the 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey, has highlighted a profound and contradictory shift in American sentiment: while a supermajority of citizens desire the United States to take an aggressive lead on the global stage, a substantial and growing portion of the public doubts the military’s ability to successfully prevail in a major overseas conflict. The survey, which polls Americans on defense and national security issues, found that approximately 64% of respondents want the U.S. to be more engaged in and lead international affairs, a figure that is up seven points from the previous year. Furthermore, an overwhelming 87% of Americans maintain that it is “important” for the U.S. to have the most powerful military in the world.
However, this widespread desire for dominance is undercut by a significant lack of confidence in the U.S. Armed Forces’ capacity to meet that ambition. When asked about specific military capabilities, only 49% of Americans expressed high confidence that the military could win a war overseas, a figure that has declined significantly since the survey began in 2018. The confidence is even lower for other key military roles, with only 45% of respondents believing the military can deter foreign aggression. This finding points to a deep-seated public concern over the long, costly conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, alongside the military’s perceived eroding edge against increasingly capable rivals like China and Russia.
The survey findings revealed a bipartisan desire to prepare for simultaneous challenges, with nearly two-thirds of Americans, 64%, supporting a military large enough to win two wars at the same time, maintaining the traditional “two-war” force planning construct. Of that group, 44% favor a force specifically capable of defeating China and Russia simultaneously. Despite the public’s confidence crisis, there is broad agreement on the need for continued investment, as most Americans view military strength as essential for peace. The survey also revealed a growing partisan divide in general confidence in the military, with high confidence surging among Republicans to 67% but dropping among Democrats to 33%, showcasing the politicization of the institution.
